Weekly

Calendar for the upcoming week is packed with Polish March’s macro data and these are likely to stay in the fore. We are entering a period when the traditionally eyed y/y growth rates will be misleading due to the dramatically low statistical base from the last year. A lot of economic indicators is probably going to show seemingly good results, with two- or almost two-digit annual growth rates (industrial output, retail sales), but comparison to 2019 will be more telling, we think. In general it is difficult to say whether the data will provide an impulse for trading, but we think they may be slightly tilted to the positive side. Apart from economic releases, information about the pandemic will still be important. Risk factors include Polish politics and geopolitics (...)

The MPC kept interest rates unchanged at its 7th April meeting. As for the statement, the MPC dropped the sentence stating that the pace of recovery may be limited by insufficient and not persistent zloty weakening and instead simply wrote that the pace of recovery will depend on the zloty exchange rate. The NBP president said in his Friday’s speech that the zloty is currently in the NBP’s “comfort zone” – the central bank preserves the right to intervene if needed but currently does not see any reason to do it. Glapiński repeated the view that interest rates will most likely remain unchanged until the end of the MPC’s term of office (spike in inflation will be temporary and driven by supply factors) and said that in more distant future the monetary policy decisions will depend on economic situation. 
After the weekend, there are 3 important macroeconomic releases in Poland (...)