Weekly

After January inflation, which fell by less than expected to 2.2% y/y, the coming week will bring the release of further domestic January data. On Thursday, figures for wages and employment in the enterprise sector, industrial and construction output, and PPI will be published. This may be a series of rather weak-looking indicators, especially when compared with the very strong December readings. Economic activity at the start of the year was significantly disrupted not only by calendar effects (one fewer working day than a year earlier) but also by an exceptionally harsh winter. We discuss the potential implications of winter conditions for the economy in a commentary published today (link). As a result, we expect (in line with market consensus) a slowdown in the growth of output and wages. Such readings should help sustain expectations of an NBP interest rate cut in March, which were dented by today’s higher-than-forecast inflation print. (...)

After the weekend, the domestic and international data release calendar will be relatively light. On Monday, data on average wages in the national economy for 4Q25 will be published (we assume an acceleration from 7.5% to 8.1% y/y). After that, the domestic calendar will become more interesting only on Fat Thursday, when Statistics Poland will release preliminary data on GDP growth in 4Q25. The preliminary estimate of GDP growth for the whole year, published last Friday, came in at 3.6%, confirming our expectations. This result suggests that GDP growth in the final quarter was in the range of 3.9%–4.2% y/y. Our forecast is at the lower end of this range, supported, among other factors, by weaker-than-expected growth in services in the final months of the year and a larger foreign trade deficit than a year earlier. (...)