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First data from the first quarter

Economic Analysis | Weekly

•    In the coming week we will get flash PMIs for European economies, with further declines being widely expected due to coronavirus, among other factors. The data on German 4Q19 GDP showed stagnation and it seems we will need to wait a bit more to see a clearer rebound in Western Europe. 
•    In Poland, there a broad set of economic data will be published, including industrial output, construction output and retail sales. In all cases the median market forecasts are relatively low, probably due to the negative surprises in December data.


Sudden mood swings

Economic Analysis | Weekly
  • Calendar of the global economic releases for the coming days is rather light and most of the data will be published on Friday. Until then, investors may focus on the coronavirus. In early February, the global market mood improved markedly amid hopes that situation will soon be under control and some better-than-expected data was released.
  • We do not expect the zloty to extend its appreciation and EURPLN should not approach 4.22. The dollar may gain at least in the short term which might weigh on the zloty and its CEE peers.
  • We think that two opposite forces, decent data and uncertainty related to the impact of the virus, should be balanced in the short term. Polish bonds outperformed their core peers and we think this could continue in the coming days. Also, Polish CPI and GDP data could be viewed as dovish.