Weekly

December will kick off with the release of Poland’s November manufacturing PMI and detailed GDP data for 3Q. (...) The highlight of the week will be the last MPC meeting this year. After successive weaker-than-forecast inflation prints (CPI slowed to 2.4% y/y in November) and earlier data showing wage slowdown, a 25bp rate cut at the upcoming meeting seems a done deal. As November CPI data lowered our projected inflation path for the coming quarters (it looks like inflation may stay below 2.5% y/y for much of 2026), we have also changed our view on the monetary policy outlook. We assume that in 1H26 the MPC will cut the main reference rate to 3.5% or even lower (moving in small steps of 25bp). Thursday’s NBP Governor press conference will be an opportunity to verify this view.  (...)

Still before the weekend, the Sejm will vote on appointing members of the Fiscal Council. After the weekend, interviews with the newly elected representatives can be expected. The next week looks very interesting. First, we will see a flood of domestic data on the economic situation in October. On Friday preliminary CPI inflation for November will be out and will be key for expectations regarding the December MPC decision – we expect CPI to slow to 2.6% y/y, the market consensus has not yet formed, but the first forecasts in Bloomberg survey are similar. Second, after the break caused by the government shutdown, more data on the US economy will appear, which may be crucial for sentiment on global financial markets (...)