Weekly

This week’s data release calendar will be lighter. Abroad, successive sentiment and business climate indicators will dominate (including Ifo, GfK, ESI and the Conference Board), alongside inflation data from euro area countries, Germany’s 4Q25 GDP, and in the US, among other things, factory orders.
Domestically, we will see January retail sales, money supply, unemployment figures, the GUS Statistical Bulletin, and preliminary results of the Labour Force Survey for 4Q25. Of this set, retail sales will be watched most closely by the market, as winter conditions may also have left their mark here. Our analysis of card payment data (link) suggests that the impact of the weather on consumer spending in January was not dramatic, but sufficient to slow sales growth. Our forecast assumes retail sales growth of around 2% y/y, compared with a market consensus of 3.3% y/y. (...)

After January inflation, which fell by less than expected to 2.2% y/y, the coming week will bring the release of further domestic January data. On Thursday, figures for wages and employment in the enterprise sector, industrial and construction output, and PPI will be published. This may be a series of rather weak-looking indicators, especially when compared with the very strong December readings. Economic activity at the start of the year was significantly disrupted not only by calendar effects (one fewer working day than a year earlier) but also by an exceptionally harsh winter. We discuss the potential implications of winter conditions for the economy in a commentary published today (link). As a result, we expect (in line with market consensus) a slowdown in the growth of output and wages. Such readings should help sustain expectations of an NBP interest rate cut in March, which were dented by today’s higher-than-forecast inflation print. (...)