Weekly

Next week will be abundant in important data from abroad, but it will also bring a few important domestic releases: the flash estimate of July CPI inflation (Wednesday) and a new print of the manufacturing PMI (Thursday). We expect that due to the increases in electricity and gas bills CPI inflation most likely not only strongly rebounded in July, but also, after five months of remaining in line with the inflation target, returned above its upper limit – in our view, slightly above 4,0% y/y. (...) The releases from abroad will include the first estimates of GDP growth in the euro area, as well as in Hungary and Czechia in 2Q24 (Tuesday). Although they will not yet show breakdowns into the main aggregates, they will provide a first indication of Europe’s economic condition over the last quarter. (...) The main event in the US will be the policy decision of the FOMC on Wednesday. (...)

Next week, we will see lot of important statistics from Poland and from abroad. On Monday, a strong dose of Polish data: business climate indicators, construction output and retail sales. (...) Globally, the crucial releases will be the preliminary PMIs for Germany, the euro area, and the US (Wednesday). Recently, their indications were not overly optimistic, which casts a shadow on expectations for an economic rebound in Europe in the second half of the year. In addition, business climate indicators, GfK and Ifo, will be released in Germany. In the second half of the week – on Thursday and Friday – we will see important data from the US: the first estimate of GDP growth in 2Q, durable goods orders, the Michigan index, personal income and spending, as well as PCE inflation.