Weekly

Next week, the middle of the week will be the most important for the Polish market. On Wednesday at 10:00 CET, GUS will publish its first estimate of GDP growth in 2Q25, and at 14:00 CET, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) will release its June balance of payments data. The market expects GDP at 3.5% y/y, but in our opinion it may be slightly lower at 3.3% y/y. On Thursday, GUS will publish final data on CPI inflation in July, together with the full structure of price changes, which will allow for a more accurate assessment of the sources of the recorded CPI slowdown.

Globally, more important data will be released on Tuesday, primarily July inflation in the US, which, according to market expectations, may increase slightly compared to June. On the same day, the results of the ZEW economic sentiment survey in Germany will be released, where expectations are for a deterioration compared to the last reading.

Lack of market-sensitive data on domestic market. However, on Friday, we will see data on average wages in the national economy in 2Q25. Despite the previously expected slowdown in wage pressure, the enterprise sector data indicate that wage growth remains quite similar to the beginning of the year. We expect the 2Q25 reading to be close to 10% y/y.
More is happening abroad. On Monday, we will get to see US data on June durable and industrial goods orders. On Tuesday, the PMI for services in the US, as well as in China, Germany, and the eurozone. July inflation in the Czech Republic and Hungary will also be released in the following days.
On Wednesday, August 6, there will be a change of scenery at the Presidential Palace – Karol Nawrocki is scheduled to be sworn in as President of the Republic of Poland at 10:00 CET.