Weekly

After the Easter break, attention will once again turn to current issues, most notably the situation in the Middle East. Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s Thursday address to the nation failed to strengthen market confidence in a swift de-escalation of the conflict, so elevated sentiment volatility and a possible further rise in fuel prices should still be expected.
In the domestic calendar, the only event in the coming week is the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. (...)

In the final week before Easter, we will continue paying closer attention to oil and gas prices than to the prices of eggs and butter. Donald Trump has extended the suspension of attacks on Iran by another 10 days, but this has failed to calm either commodity or financial markets, which remain concerned about the security of energy supplies in the coming months. Polish drivers will be closely watching the fate of a government bill allowing for a temporary reduction in fuel taxes, which should be sent to the President for signature in the coming days.

In the calendar of domestic economic releases for the coming week, there are only two key items: the flash CPI inflation reading for March and the manufacturing PMI. Our estimates suggest that CPI inflation rose in March to 3.1% y/y from 2.1% in February (...)