Weekly

The coming week will be relatively light in terms of economic data releases. Global markets’ attention will be focused on how negotiations on ending the war with Iran are progressing, but just after the weekend the number one topic will most likely be the outcome of the elections in Hungary. Opinion polls have for many weeks pointed to a growing lead of the opposition TISZA party, but the outcome is not a foregone conclusion, as the ruling Fidesz party can count on a number of electoral system regulations working in its favour and possibly also on a late-stage mobilisation of its electorate.

In Poland, balance of payments data for February will be released on Monday, followed on Wednesday by final March CPI inflation data. On Thursday, core inflation figures will be published along with the annual revision of quarterly GDP data for the past two years. (...)

After the Easter break, attention will once again turn to current issues, most notably the situation in the Middle East. Unfortunately, Donald Trump’s Thursday address to the nation failed to strengthen market confidence in a swift de-escalation of the conflict, so elevated sentiment volatility and a possible further rise in fuel prices should still be expected.
In the domestic calendar, the only event in the coming week is the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. (...)