Weekly

The war with Iran and its potential consequences remain the number one topic commanding market attention. As a result, the importance of incoming historical data releases is diminishing in the near term — the state of the economy seen in the rear view mirror matters less when a tornado has appeared on the horizon.
Nevertheless, the coming week will bring a new batch of domestic data that we will be monitoring: on Monday, core inflation for January–February and the January balance of payments; on Wednesday, March consumer confidence survey; on Thursday, wages and employment as well as industrial output and construction; and on Friday, business sentiment in the enterprise sector. (...) Abroad, it will be a week dominated by central banks. (...)

Since the last weekend, the world's attention has been focused on the situation in the Middle East, and it seems that this will not change in the near future. Of course, we do not know how long the conflict with Iran will last, but the available information does not suggest a rapid de-escalation at this stage. Economic scenarios must therefore be viewed as variants, with their probabilities updated on an ongoing basis. 
There are many possible future scenarios, but for simplicity, let us distinguish three main ones: (1) rapid de-escalation, accompanied by a normalisation of commodity prices (within 4-6 weeks), (2) the current intensity of the conflict and the current oil and gas prices continuing for longer, say until the end of this year, (3) further escalation, combined with a further rise in commodity prices.  (...)