Will data for April confirm economic recovery?

Economic Analysis | Weekly

The beginning of next week is set to be quiet and calm when it comes to new data releases, but starting from Wednesday we will be getting plenty of domestic data, which will provide us the first insight into the state of economy in the second quarter. Firstly, on Wednesday, we will learn about April wages and employment, industrial production, PPI, as well as May consumer and business sentiment. On Thursday, we will get data on retail sales and construction output, and on Friday, on money supply. (...)


How large rebound in 1Q24?

Economic Analysis | Weekly

Next week will bring, among others, a preliminary estimate of the Polish economy's performance in 1Q24, full data on April inflation and the March balance of payments. In our view, GDP accelerated in 1Q24 to 1.8% y/y (in line with the market consensus) from 1.0% in 4Q23 is on track to grow by around 3% in the entire year. Although March's economic activity data came in below market expectations, we do not see this as sufficient reason to undermine the economic rebound in 1Q24. (...)