Weekly

After the weekend, the domestic and international data release calendar will be relatively light. On Monday, data on average wages in the national economy for 4Q25 will be published (we assume an acceleration from 7.5% to 8.1% y/y). After that, the domestic calendar will become more interesting only on Fat Thursday, when Statistics Poland will release preliminary data on GDP growth in 4Q25. The preliminary estimate of GDP growth for the whole year, published last Friday, came in at 3.6%, confirming our expectations. This result suggests that GDP growth in the final quarter was in the range of 3.9%–4.2% y/y. Our forecast is at the lower end of this range, supported, among other factors, by weaker-than-expected growth in services in the final months of the year and a larger foreign trade deficit than a year earlier. (...)

We end this week with positive news from the Polish economy – in line with our forecast, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2025, indicating that growth in the final quarter of the year was close to 4%. The upcoming week will be light on domestic data – on Monday we will see the January PMI reading for Polish manufacturing. On Tuesday the February meeting of the Monetary Policy Council begins, with the decision to be announced on Wednesday afternoon. A day later, as usual, Adam Glapiński will hold a press conference commenting on the Council’s decision. Like much of the market, we expect interest rates to remain unchanged. (...)