Weekly

We should start the new week better rested due to the switch from daylight saving time to standard time in Poland this weekend. (...) The domestic economic calendar for the new week includes only one, but important, item: preliminary CPI inflation data for October, due on Friday. We expect CPI to rise to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% y/y in August–September. (...) Abroad, flash 3Q GDP data will be published by selected EU countries (including Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Czechia, Hungary), while in the US the release is likely to be delayed due to the prolonged government shutdown. Several European sentiment indicators will also be released: Ifo, GfK, ESI. However, investor attention will be focused on central bank decisions, particularly the US FOMC on Wednesday. (...)

After the weekend, we are in for a large batch of new domestic economic data that will help summarise the performance of the economy in 3Q. On Monday, we will get figures on September wages, employment, industrial production and PPI inflation; on Tuesday, construction and assembly output; on Wednesday, retail sales, money supply, and October’s consumer and business sentiment; and on Thursday, the Statistical Bulletin will be out with a set of detailed indicators and official data on registered unemployment. We expect most of the September releases to show a clear improvement in y/y growth rates compared to previous months. (...)