Weekly

The coming week will be fairly calm in terms of domestic events. The local publication calendar includes only core inflation on Monday (which, according to our current estimates, fell to 2.9% y/y, the lowest since November 2019), consumer sentiment on Thursday, and business sentiment on Friday (the former may record a seasonal deterioration, the latter rather a slight improvement). Data on budget performance after nine months of the year may also be released. Only the following week will bring a cluster of key indicators regarding the economic situation in October. The European Commission will publish its autumn update of economic forecasts on Monday, including the trajectory of EU countries’ fiscal deficits and debt (...)

The highlight of the current week will be this evening’s decision by S&P regarding Poland’s credit rating. We expect that, as in the case of Moody’s and Fitch, S&P will downgrade the outlook without changing the rating itself. The new working week, although shortened by Independence Day, will provide a solid dose of insights into the Polish economy, concentrated on Thursday (first estimate of GDP growth in 3Q25, September balance of payments) and Friday (details of October inflation). We will probably also hear comments from further MPC members (following today’s L. Kotecki) on the Council’s latest decision. (...)