Weekly

Since the last weekend, the world's attention has been focused on the situation in the Middle East, and it seems that this will not change in the near future. Of course, we do not know how long the conflict with Iran will last, but the available information does not suggest a rapid de-escalation at this stage. Economic scenarios must therefore be viewed as variants, with their probabilities updated on an ongoing basis. 
There are many possible future scenarios, but for simplicity, let us distinguish three main ones: (1) rapid de-escalation, accompanied by a normalisation of commodity prices (within 4-6 weeks), (2) the current intensity of the conflict and the current oil and gas prices continuing for longer, say until the end of this year, (3) further escalation, combined with a further rise in commodity prices.  (...)

The coming week in Poland will be sponsored by letters: PMI, GDP and the MPC. On Monday morning, we will see the February reading of the manufacturing PMI. (...) An hour later, Statistics Poland (GUS) will release detailed GDP data for 4Q25. (...) On Wednesday, the Monetary Policy Council will conclude its meeting. Before taking its interest rate decision, the Council will see the results of the new NBP projection. We assume that the MPC will decide to cut interest rates again by 25bp, in response to the slight decline in CPI inflation in January and to the projection results, which will most likely confirm the stabilisation of inflation in the coming quarters close to the 2.5% target . (...)