Weekly

The first month of the new year did not bring another interest rate cut, but comments from MPC members suggest that there is still room to ease monetary policy further (...) We hope for further MPC commentary this week. In the coming days we will learn December wage growth in the enterprise sector – after November’s 7.1% y/y, a result close to 6.9%, i.e. our forecast and the market consensus (7.0%), would likely support delaying the next cut. Although this was the first December with Christmas Eve as a public holiday, it should not, in our view, produce weak readings of industrial output and construction‑assembly output (...) President Karol Nawrocki has until Tuesday to sign the 2026 budget act.

Welcome to the new year! May it bring all our readers joy and prosperity! This week, the key domestic topic will once again be monetary policy. On Tuesday, the MPC meeting begins, featuring the debut of a new Council member, Marcin Zarzecki, appointed by the President to replace Cezary Kochalski. His views on monetary policy are not yet known; we expect the first interviews after the MPC meeting concludes. The MPC decision will be announced on Wednesday. We assume that – in line with earlier suggestions – the Council will keep interest rates unchanged. On Thursday at 15:00, as usual, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński will hold a press conference explaining the decision. On Thursday morning, full CPI data for December will be released, and on Friday, core inflation data. Earlier, on Tuesday, we will get balance of payments data for November. (...)