Weekly

Some are already starting their summer holidays, for others it will be a busy week. We will spend it analysing and commenting on preliminary data on June inflation (according to us, it remained at 4.0% y/y), June manufacturing PMI (we see a slight rebound after a big drop in May). In addition, we will know the balance of payments data for 1Q. The Monetary Policy Council also still has to make its final effort to earn the right to a holiday break. In its Wednesday's decision, based on the new projection, the MPC should keep rates unchanged, with the message from the Council and the NBP President during his press conference likely to focus attention on September, as the moment when many of the uncertainty factors will have already disappeared and it will be possible to think about readjusting rates.

The nearest week will be shorter than usual – we have market holiday on Thursday in Poland, USA and a couple of other countries – but packed with important events.
Locally, we will see data on core inflation (Monday), consumer confidence (Wednesday) and business climate (Friday) – all of secondary importance for the markets, in our view. Abroad, economic publications will include inflation data in European states, retail sales, manufacturing, and housing market data in the US.
Many central bank decisions are scheduled during the week: on Monday the Bank of Japan, on Wednesday Chile, Brazil, Sweden and the US Fed, on Thursday the Swiss National Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Norway and the Bank of Turkey, on Friday the central bank of China. (...)