MPC in a tough spot

Economic Analysis | Weekly

The calendar of events and publications for the first week of July is not very extensive. In Poland, the most important event will be the MPC meeting on Thursday, July 7 and the conference of the NBP president, probably a day later in the afternoon. Also, the Sejm session is scheduled, at which, among other things, the approval of the laws on assistance to borrowers and on coal subsidies is expected. Abroad, not too many data releases, inclunding final services PMIs, industrial orders in Europe and the US, Fed and ECB minutes, and data from the US labor market at the end of the week. Monday is the market holiday in the US. (...)


Hot start of summer holidays

Economic Analysis | Weekly

• There was a total mood swing on the markets. The week began with a trauma following the hawkish pivot of main central banks, which triggered the rise of expectations about future rate hikes and the rise of bond yields around the world to new highs. However, starting from Tuesday, the main market theme were fears that a commodity price shock and a radical monetary tightening would inevitably force the global economy into recession, which in turn triggered a sudden U-turn in debt markets with sharply declining yields. This global trend was reinforced by our domestic data (production, employment, wages, retail sales all came below forecasts), suggesting that the economy is beginning to slow, which may help to stoke inflation.
• For the better part of the coming week, global news on the outlook for inflation, economic growth and interest rates will take centre stage, determining the trend in global markets. (...)