Weekly

Next week may be quite interesting: we will get a large set of domestic data, describing the state of the economy in August (CPI on Monday, core inflation on Tuesday, consumer confidence on Wednesday, wages, employment, PPI, industrial and construction output on Thursday, plus possibly information on budget execution), which will end with a review of Poland's rating by Moody's on Friday evening. (...) The list of data releases abroad is shorter, including inflation in the eurozone, production and retail sales in the US. However, there will be decisions by important central banks, in particular the FOMC, plus the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. (...) Russia and Belarus start military exercises Zapad-2025 today, which will last until Tuesday, 16 September. Should any further incidents occur near the border of Poland or other countries on NATO's eastern flank, this could have a negative impact on the risk premium in the region. (...)

The calendar for the coming week is fairly modest. The only data release in Poland is Friday's balance of payments for July. (...) As always, in the days following the MPC meeting, new interviews with Council members can be expected. On Tuesday, the government is expected to adopt a new bill extending the energy price freeze and introducing a heating voucher, and to submit it to the Sejm, which also begins its first session after the summer recess on Tuesday. (...) 
Later today, Fitch Ratings is expected to review Poland's rating. The current rating is A- with a neutral outlook. In our opinion, the recently published draft budget for 2026, which once again puts Poland on a worse fiscal trajectory than previously expected, increases the risk of a rating outlook deterioration, although we are not entirely convinced that this will be reflected already in today's decision by Fitch. (...)