Weekly

Next week the calendar of economic events is quite modest. In Poland, there are only two data releases: on Friday, the 13th, there will be May CPI inflation and the April balance of payments. Abroad, mainly inflation data (including in Czechia, Hungary, the US and eurozone countries), plus industrial production in the eurozone, the University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index. (...) Investors' attention will remained focused around political issues, including the confidence vote for the government scheduled for Wednesday 11 June in the parliament. Earlier, on Monday, a meeting of coalition leaders is to be held, at which the terms of further cooperation and programme proposals to be included in PM Tusk's expose may be agreed. Sejm Speaker Szymon Hołownia today proposed to include a windfall tax on bank profits in the coalition agreement. 

The number 1 topic at the start of the new week will be the outcome of the presidential election in Poland. Polls continue to indicate that the chances of the two candidates are almost even. It may turn out that the winner will be determined by a small difference in votes, so the exit poll results available on Sunday evening may not dispel all uncertainty and the market will wait for official data from the National Electoral Commission.
The domestic economic calendar includes the publication of the industrial PMI for May and the full Q1 2025 GDP data (both on Monday morning), as well as the MPC's decision on interest rates (Wednesday), followed by the NBP president's speech (Thursday). (...)