Weekly

The details of next year's budget, published this afternoon, will remain the number one topic in the near future, even after the weekend, given the size of the planned deficit and debt. As for the regular economic publications, Monday will be the most interesting for Poland. The August PMI index for Polish manufacturing will be published, as well as the second reading of Polish 2Q GDP, this time with more detailed data on the structure of its growth. We expect that the initially reported GDP growth of 3.4% will be confirmed and that it was driven by some acceleration in domestic demand compared to 1Q (from 4.6% to 4.9% y/y), particularly in public consumption, with a slight slowdown in investment (from 6.3% to 4.0% y/y).

After the weekend, more domestic data will be released, completing the picture of the economic situation at the beginning of the third quarter. On Monday, we will get to see July retail sales and money supply, as well as a publication on companies' financial results for the first half of the year. On Tuesday, GUS will publish the registered unemployment rate and the monthly Statistical Bulletin with a set of more detailed information about the economy. On Thursday, the minutes of the July Monetary Policy Council meeting will be released, at which the Council lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, and on Friday, we will learn preliminary data on August CPI inflation. From a market perspective, however, the most eagerly awaited information will be the draft budget for 2026, which the Ministry of Finance usually submits for public consultation in the last days of August. A wide range of publications are scheduled abroad, including the European Ifo, GfK and ESI. (…)