Weekly

The last days of this year and the beginning of the new one should be relatively calm for the economy and financial markets. The number of economic publications will be limited, although that does not mean that nothing interesting will show up: on Monday, 22 December, we will get data on business sentiment, retail sales and money supply, and on Tuesday, registered unemployment and the GUS Statistical Bulletin; on Tuesday, 30 December, quarterly balance of payments data will be released, on New Year’s Eve preliminary CPI inflation data for December, and on Friday, 2 January, the manufacturing PMI for December. (...)

After a data-poor period, next week will bring a strong dataset. On Monday, we will see November inflation data (preliminary reading: 2.4% y/y), which will allow for a more accurate assessment of the source of the declining price trajectory. NBP will also release October balance of payments. On Tuesday, we will see core inflation in November, on Wednesday the results of the December consumer sentiment survey. Then, on Thursday, the November's wages, employment, production, and its prices. Industrial production may record a slightly worse result than in October (2.7% instead of 3.2% y/y), similarly to construction and assembly production (2.5% vs. 4.1% y/y). In the US, delayed economic data for October and some new data for November will be released, in particular: on Tuesday, we should see the non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and retail sales report, on Thursday, inflation data, and on Friday, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index. (...)