Weekly

We end this week with positive news from the Polish economy – in line with our forecast, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2025, indicating that growth in the final quarter of the year was close to 4%. The upcoming week will be light on domestic data – on Monday we will see the January PMI reading for Polish manufacturing. On Tuesday the February meeting of the Monetary Policy Council begins, with the decision to be announced on Wednesday afternoon. A day later, as usual, Adam Glapiński will hold a press conference commenting on the Council’s decision. Like much of the market, we expect interest rates to remain unchanged. (...)

December statistics for industrial and construction output and corporate wages surprised strongly to the upside, indicating that the domestic economy ended last year in a high gear. How high – this should be clarified by the preliminary GDP estimate for the whole of 2025, which the Polish stats office will publish next Friday, 30 January, at a press conference under the charming title “Data on Poland in 2025 – facts, myths, reality”. Our forecast, similar to market consensus, assumes full‑year growth of 3.6%. Such an annual result would be consistent with GDP growth in 4Q25 in the 3.8–4.1% y/y range. However, we will only learn the 4Q25 data in February. (...)