Weekly

The coming week will be heavy in publications from the Polish economy. Monday will feature industrial and construction outputs, PPI inflation, and labour market data. In our opinion, the June reading for wage growth should be similar to May's (above 8% y/y).
Tuesday will see retail sales, M3 money supply, and economic sentiment indicators, while Wednesday will see consumer sentiment and the Statistical Bulletin. 
Globally, we will get to see decisions from the central banks of China, Hungary, and the euro zone. We believe the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged until the end of the year.

The main event of the passing week was the unexpected rate cut delivered by the MPC. Though it came two months after the previous one and will likely be followed by another one in September, the NBP Governor does not consider it to be a part of a policy-easing cycle. A new NBP projection was also released and in our view provides motivation for further rate cuts. However, it may be more important at the moment how individual MPC members see it and in the coming week, devoid of significant domestic economic data releases, their remarks may be in focus. Abroad, attention will be focused on the US administration’s decision on the future of the so-called reciprocal tariffs (...)