Weekly

Next week will see a sizeable set of domestic data releases describing the state of the economy in March: on Monday, wages and employment in the corporate sector, industrial and construction output, PPI, plus the GUS business climate indices for April; on Tuesday, money supply; on Wednesday, unemployment and other details in the GUS Statistical Bulletin. (...) Abroad, key releases include flash manufacturing and services PMIs, the German Ifo index, in the US the first estimate of 1Q24 GDP and the March PCE deflator (the Fed's preferred inflation measure). Interest rate decisions will be made by central banks in China (Monday), Hungary (Tuesday), Turkey (Thursday) and Japan (Friday). In Hungary, another rate cut is expected (by 50bp, to 7.75%), while no change is the most likely outcome elsewhere. Some analysts do not exclude an announcement of the start of QT by the Bank of Japan.

Key political topic in Poland after the weekend will be the municipal election results. In the domestic economy, the coming week should be fairly quiet: the only publication on the calendar is Friday's balance of payments data for February, which will probably show another current account surplus, albeit smaller than in January. As usual, in the week following the MPC meeting, new interviews with Council members can be expected, most of whom are likely to confirm the stance to be presented by NBP President Adam Glapinski at the conference this afternoon - which is expected to be similar to that of a month ago (...)