Growing signs of recovery

Economic Analysis | Weekly

No publications of key domestic data in the coming week. Attention will be drawn to the last MPC meeting of the year - the decision on Wednesday, NBP President Glapinski's conference on Thursday afternoon. The outcome of the meeting seems rather obvious - interest rates will remain unchanged and communication will, similarly as a month ago, point to high uncertainty about the future government's fiscal and regulatory policies and the associated risks to disinflation. Such a narrative has been evident in the remarks of MPC representatives in recent weeks. (...)


Consumer optimism

Economic Analysis | Weekly

The latest economic data for November confirmed, in line with our baseline scenario, a favourable outlook for private consumption with good retail sales data, improving consumer sentiment and real wages. In the event of at least a partial withdrawal of 'anti-inflationary shields', we see downside risks to our estimate of headline CPI and upside risks to consumption. Signals from industry continue to be less optimistic. This week's key publication will be the inflation data, for which we assume a stabilisation of the annual growth rate in November at 6.6% y/y. We will also see detailed Q3 GDP data for Europe and PMI indices. On Monday, M. Morawiecki will present his government.