Weekly

The highlight of the current week will be this evening’s decision by S&P regarding Poland’s credit rating. We expect that, as in the case of Moody’s and Fitch, S&P will downgrade the outlook without changing the rating itself. The new working week, although shortened by Independence Day, will provide a solid dose of insights into the Polish economy, concentrated on Thursday (first estimate of GDP growth in 3Q25, September balance of payments) and Friday (details of October inflation). We will probably also hear comments from further MPC members (following today’s L. Kotecki) on the Council’s latest decision. (...)

We will start the new week with a series of PMIs measuring October’s manufacturing activity in Poland, European countries, and the USA. We expect the Polish index to continue its gradual recovery and show a level slightly above 48 pts, still below the neutral threshold of 50 pts. In addition to the PMI, Polish macro data will be complemented on Friday by Eurostat figures on services production in August. Probably by the end of the week we will also learn preliminary data from the Ministry of Labour, Family and Social Policy on registered unemployment in October – here we expect the unemployment rate to stabilise at 5.6%. For market participants, the most important event of the week will undoubtedly be the MPC meeting starting on Tuesday. The Council’s decision will be announced on Wednesday afternoon, and the press conference of NBP Governor Adam Glapiński will take place as usual the next day, Thursday.