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Election fever

Economic Analysis | Weekly

Another week has passed in which the markets have sought stabilization and this time without announcements of another biggest in history emergency packages by governments and central banks. The incoming data already covers periods of significant disruptions in economic activity created by the epidemic. Looking at the number of Covid-19 cases globally alone does not suggest the mood should improve just now. Rather, more likely scenario is that of closed factories and limited shopping and movements in many countries.

Polish political affairs may also be an important driver of the market since there is a disagreement among the coalition parties if to run a presidential elections on May 10. If there is no solution the stability of the Polish government could be threatened which in turn could have an adverse impact on the market.


Prepare for more bad data

Economic Analysis | Weekly

•    First economic data that include the impact of pandemic released already in some countries look pretty gloomy. Flash PMIs plummeted, mainly in services, and signal deep recession. In the US, the initial jobless claims rose by more than 3mn in a week (c.1% of the US population), to its highest level on record. In Norway, the similar measure jumped by 350% within two weeks which implies unemployment rate at above 10% (the highest since Great Depression in the 1930s).
•    In the coming days, we will see more of such releases, but what could now trigger a yet another wave of pessimism is not weakness in macro data, it seems, but information that economic deadlock might last longer than expected.