The winter holidays are coming to an end, but the restrictions are not going away (except that children from classes 1-3 go back to school). Many other European countries are also extending or even strengthening pandemic restrictions in reaction to the rising wave of new Covid-19 infections. It means that economic results of 1Q21 will be still weak, but it should come by no surprise – in the MACROscope report released in December we wrote that the pandemic threat will weigh on the economy throughout winter. What is more worrying though is the disappointing pace of vaccination (not only in Poland) and the new mutations of the virus (UK, South Africa, Brazil), with much higher transmission capabilities.
The end of 2020 and the first days of 2021 were not boring at all, but rather full of important events: launch of the resolution procedure in Polish banking sector, NBP’s FX interventions and comments about possible interest rate cuts, crowds’ attack on Capitol in the USA and seizure of control over Senate by Democrats; in the background – new records of daily Covid-19 cases in many countries and extension of restrictions by governments. We still believe that 2021 will be much better than 2020 as regards the progress in fighting pandemic and the economic revival. However, it is clear that the road towards those goals will be bumpy.