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Weekly

10July2020

Not-so-silly season

Economic Analysis | Weekly

What’s hot next week:

The main theme at the start of the week will be the result of presidential elections. The odds of both candidates seem to be almost even, so if the first exit polls show only slim victory of one of them, the final outcome will remain highly uncertain until the announcement of official results (probably on Tuesday at the latest).
On Tuesday the next MPC meeting is scheduled – again with no press conference afterwards. At this meeting the Council should get to know the results of the new NBP projections. We do not know if the results of projections will be presented in detail at the NBP's press conference, but the main findings should be included already in the MPC communique. We do not expect any change in monetary policy this time. (...) 

3July2020

More optimism, more infections

Economic Analysis | Weekly

Next week the agenda of events and economic publications is again very thin: in Poland the only data release will be FX reserves at the end of June, abroad only a few indicators including German production and exports, inflation in Czechia, Hungary, Russia, China, Eurozone retail sales, US ISM and PMIs.

Very few events plus the start of summer holidays is normally a recipe for idle financial market. This time another argument for stabilisation in Poland could be the waiting for the final result of the presidential elections (July 12), as investors may prefer to avoid strong directional bets before they know the final outcome. Chances of both candidates seem to be quite even, although in the last few days of campaign everything can happen.