Weekly

The economic data calendar for the coming week will be rather light. In Poland we will receive February data on retail sales and money supply (Monday), unemployment and the monthly GUS Statistical Bulletin (Tuesday).
Our retail sales growth forecast (4% y/y) is clearly below the market consensus median (around 6% y/y). The forecast is based on an analysis of card payment data from our bank’s clients - which in recent months have provided a fairly good indication of retail sales developments. If this proves correct, the figures would add to the set of arguments for the MPC not to rush its monetary policy response to commodity price swings - slowing wage and consumption growth would reduce the risk of so called second round effects. In any case, any monetary policy changes before July seem highly unlikely at this point. . (...)

The war with Iran and its potential consequences remain the number one topic commanding market attention. As a result, the importance of incoming historical data releases is diminishing in the near term — the state of the economy seen in the rear view mirror matters less when a tornado has appeared on the horizon.
Nevertheless, the coming week will bring a new batch of domestic data that we will be monitoring: on Monday, core inflation for January–February and the January balance of payments; on Wednesday, March consumer confidence survey; on Thursday, wages and employment as well as industrial output and construction; and on Friday, business sentiment in the enterprise sector. (...) Abroad, it will be a week dominated by central banks. (...)