Weekly

The economic calendar for the coming week is rather modest. In Poland, the highlight will be the Monetary Policy Council’s decision on Wednesday and NBP Governor Glapiński’s press conference the following day. On Tuesday, the Sejm begins its session, which includes the first reading of the draft budget bill for 2026. That same day, GUS is expected to publish a revised estimate of GDP for 2024. On Wednesday, Eurostat will release data on services production for July. Abroad, the publication list is sparse, featuring inflation data from Czechia and Hungary, German industrial orders, production and exports. In the US, as long as the government shutdown continues, data from federal agencies will not be released. Midweek, the minutes from the Fed meeting will be published, and on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey will be released. In addition to the NBP, central banks in New Zealand and Romania will decide on interest rates.  (...)

The turn of September and October will not be rich in domestic events. The local calendar includes only two data releases: preliminary inflation figures for September (Tuesday) and the manufacturing PMI index (Wednesday).
We expect CPI growth to accelerate to 3.2% y/y (from 2.9% recorded in August), which is the highest forecast in the Bloomberg survey (where the median is 3.0%, and other analysts’ estimates range from 2.8% to 3.1% y/y). (...) As for PMI, we expect the index to stabilise at 46.6 points (market median is 47.0), which reflects a balance between a slight improvement in industrial sentiment indicated by the GUS business survey and a renewed decline in preliminary manufacturing PMIs in Western Europe. (...)