Weekly

Still before the weekend, the Sejm will vote on appointing members of the Fiscal Council. After the weekend, interviews with the newly elected representatives can be expected. The next week looks very interesting. First, we will see a flood of domestic data on the economic situation in October. On Friday preliminary CPI inflation for November will be out and will be key for expectations regarding the December MPC decision – we expect CPI to slow to 2.6% y/y, the market consensus has not yet formed, but the first forecasts in Bloomberg survey are similar. Second, after the break caused by the government shutdown, more data on the US economy will appear, which may be crucial for sentiment on global financial markets (...)
 

The coming week will be fairly calm in terms of domestic events. The local publication calendar includes only core inflation on Monday (which, according to our current estimates, fell to 2.9% y/y, the lowest since November 2019), consumer sentiment on Thursday, and business sentiment on Friday (the former may record a seasonal deterioration, the latter rather a slight improvement). Data on budget performance after nine months of the year may also be released. Only the following week will bring a cluster of key indicators regarding the economic situation in October. The European Commission will publish its autumn update of economic forecasts on Monday, including the trajectory of EU countries’ fiscal deficits and debt (...)