Weekly

The intensity of news flow from main economies will go down in the upcoming week, giving markets time to mull recent information: it seems that the Fed is making the shift towards policy normalisation very gently in order not to surprise the markets, global inflation pressures are not giving in – flash readings in July surprised to the upside, 2Q GDP growth in USA and Germany was worse than expected. We will get to see PMI readings for July, but we already saw flash estimates, so space for surprises is limited (...)

The calendar at the upcoming week is, in contrast to the passing one, relatively empty in Poland – on Thursday there is preliminary July CPI inflation print, market expects 4.7% y/y, we 4.5% y/y, versus 4.4% y/y in June. There are however a lot of pretty important events planned abroad. Preliminary Q2 GDP is being published in the US (Thursday) as well as in the euro and in the Czech Republic (Friday). July preliminary inflation is published in Germany (Thursday) euro and the USA (Friday, PCE index). On top of that business cycle indicators are due for release in Germany (Monday, IFO), Eurozone (Thursday, ESI) and the US (Friday, Michigan index). Central banks of Hungary (Tuesday, 10-15bp hike) and the USA (Wednesday, unchanged) are deciding on rates. Further data from the US real estate market are published on Monday and Thursday. Euro zone labour market data are expected on Friday.