Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener:

• Strong US monthly jobs report
• Dollar gains after data, zloty slightly weaker
• Polish bond stable at the end of the week
• German exports beats expectations, Czech output in line

• For months the market has been driven by expectations regarding how the Brexit and the trade deal would be managed. In general, investors have been pricing the scenario of the hard Brexit being avoided and at least the partial trade agreement being signed sooner than later. As a result, bond yields are somewhat higher than three months ago and many of the stock indexes are at their all-time- or at least multi-month highs.
• This week, the market will say “I call” since the UK holds a parliamentary elections and December 15 is the deadline for the next tariffs to be imposed on China.
   

GDP growth decelerated to 3.9% y/y, confirming the flash estimate. The slowdown was driven by softening of main components of domestic demand: investments, private consumption and inventories, while net exports surprised positively, adding 0.8pp to GDP growth. We expect Polish economy to keep slowing in the coming quarters at a moderate pace, as the impact of external shocks will gradually filter to investments and trade. CPI inflation inched up to 2.6% y/y in November, a bit less than we estimated and we think the final reading may be revised higher after taking into account rise of fuel and food prices at the end of the month. Core inflation rose to 2.6%, according to our estimate. We still think that the peak for both CPI and core inflation will take place 1Q20.

As expected, the Law and Justice (PiS) won the parliamentary elections in October, securing simple majority in the Sejm (235/460 seats) and will continue ruling alone. At the same time, the party has lost its majority in the Senate (48/100 seats). It will not paralyse the legislative process, as the Sejm can overturn the Senate's veto with an absolute majority, but can make it longer. The first meeting of the new parliament is scheduled for 12 November and before that we will not officially know the shape of the new government. Yet, the PiS officials have already suggested that the cabinet will not change dramatically and Mateusz Morawiecki should keep the Prime Minister's chair. (...)

In September's Rates and FX Outlook:
 

• Poland’s GDP growth failed to accelerate in 2Q16, with investments surprising negatively (-4.9% y/y), and we think that the second half of the year will see no significant improvement in economic growth. Although private consumption is likely to gain strength in the coming quarters, supported by solid labour income and the new child subsidies, it may take time until investments recover, and the positive impact of net exports will be hard to maintain (export growth may decelerate and imports accelerate). We expect a more significant investment pick-up next year, but by then the impact of the 500+ child benefit programme on consumption will be dissipating. Therefore, we forecast that GDP will grow 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017.