Today January CPI inflation
Economic Analysis | DailyIn today's Eyeopener
- Today domestic inflation in January, start of the Munich Security Conference
- GDP growth accelerated in 4Q24 to 3.2% y/y, slightly below forecasts
- December current account balance at -€0.8bn, better than expected
- Zloty weaker, bonds stronger
Market awaits the peace plan
Economic Analysis | WeeklyThe last few days have passed in an atmosphere of anticipation for the Munich Security Conference (starts today, lasts until Sunday), where plans to end the war between Russia and Ukraine are expected to be announced. President Donald Trump signalled that US representatives would talk with Russian envoys about the issue during the conference, with further talks to take place in the following weeks, including in Saudi Arabia. Russia, however, denied sending its delegation to Munich; a meeting between Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Zelenski was, however, confirmed. The market mood just after the weekend may largely depend on the conclusions of these talks and the proposals made. In addition to the Ukraine-related topics, possible new US decisions on tariffs will continue to be important market-wise (...)
CPI inflation surprised to the upside
Economic Analysis | Economic commentJanuary CPI inflation surprised to the upside, reaching 5.3% y/y against our expectation of 5.1% y/y and the market consensus of 5.0% y/y. We estimate January core inflation at 4.0-4.1% y/y vs. 4.0% y/y in December. We expect CPI to peak in March, slightly above the January level, and then gradually decline to 4.0% y/y by the end of the year. Note that today's CPI reading has been calculated using basket weights for 2024 and will be revised in March. However, we assume that this revision will not result in a significant change in the reading. Today’s figures support NBP’s Adam Glapiński in his claim that it is too early to cut rates.
Mood swings
Economic Analysis | MACROscopeIt is now three months since the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, and uncertainty about the effects of changes in US policy on the global economy and global security has not decreased significantly, but rather has entered a new level. It has become apparent that even decisions already announced and taken (as in the case of the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico) tell us little about what will actually happen, as they can be put on hold or reversed in an instant. On one hand, it makes economic forecasting still difficult; on the other hand, it leaves open the possibility that, for example, fears of a sharp turn towards trade protectionism that could harm the global economy will ultimately materialise only to a limited extent (...)
Rates and FX Outlook - September 2016
Economic Analysis | Rates and FXIn September's Rates and FX Outlook:
- Poland’s GDP growth failed to accelerate in 2Q16, with investments surprising negatively (-4.9% y/y), and we think that the second half of the year will see no significant improvement in economic growth. Although private consumption is likely to gain strength in the coming quarters, supported by solid labour income and the new child subsidies, it may take time until investments recover, and the positive impact of net exports will be hard to maintain (export growth may decelerate and imports accelerate). We expect a more significant investment pick-up next year, but by then the impact of the 500+ child benefit programme on consumption will be dissipating. Therefore, we forecast that GDP will grow 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017.