Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses

28February2024

Record sales of housing loans

Economic Analysis | Daily

In today's Eyeopener:
 
- Today ESI sentiment indicators foe u countries, second estimate of US GDP
- GUS business sentiment indicators up in February
- Złoty rather stable, bond yields somewhat higher

23February2024

EU funds finally unfrozen

Economic Analysis | Weekly

Next week, there are only two economic releases in the domestic calendar: detailed GDP data for 4Q2023 and the manufacturing PMI for February. 
The former numbers will show the breakdown of GDP growth, which according to the flash estimate reached 1.0% y/y and was weaker than our earlier expectations. The room for surprises from this publication is limited by the fact that a month ago the statistical office has already published full-year GDP data, on the basis of which it is quite easy to estimate the last quarter's performance. According to our calculations, private consumption growth in 4Q amounted to a mere 0.1% y/y (vs. 0.8% y/y in 3Q), investments accelerated to almost 8% y/y (7.2% y/y in 3Q), the contribution of inventories to GDP remained strongly negative (ca. -6pp) and net exports clearly positive (+4pp). (...)

22February2024

Polish consumer entered 2024 with impetus

Economic Analysis | Economic comment

Retail sales advanced by 3.0% y/y in January, markedly above forecasts (we: 1.0% y/y, consensus: 1.4% y/y) and -2.3% y/y in December. After the negative surprises from industrial and construction production, this allows us to stay confident in the scenario of a gradual economic recovery this year, with household consumption demand as the main driver. This will be supported by consumer optimism and strong real growth in disposable income (real wages in January grew at the fastest rate since 2008). Also consistent with such a scenario are the results of the GUS business sentiment survey, which showed an improvement in expectations in February. Procurement prices of agricultural products fell markedly in January, suggesting further downward pressure on food prices.

2February2024

Too early to panic

Economic Analysis | MACROscope

Preliminary data about GDP for entire 2023 turned out to be a big disappointment, showing the increase of just 0.2%. We might have felt some satisfaction that this was a result almost exactly in line with our forecast from over a year ago (in December 2022 we predicted 0.1% for the following year), were it not for the fact that we have been rather among the optimists in recent months and our last forecast was at 0.6%. Such a low annual reading could mean that the end of year the was very weak (if we assume that there was no revision of the previous three quarters, then according to our estimates GDP growth in 4Q fell by more than 1% q/q on a seasonally adjusted basis). However, this is not a done deal: if there were some data revisions, then we actually know little about the 4Q (...)

6September2016

Rates and FX Outlook - September 2016

Economic Analysis | Rates and FX

In September's Rates and FX Outlook:
 

  • Poland’s GDP growth failed to accelerate in 2Q16, with investments surprising negatively (-4.9% y/y), and we think that the second half of the year will see no significant improvement in economic growth. Although private consumption is likely to gain strength in the coming quarters, supported by solid labour income and the new child subsidies, it may take time until investments recover, and the positive impact of net exports will be hard to maintain (export growth may decelerate and imports accelerate). We expect a more significant investment pick-up next year, but by then the impact of the 500+ child benefit programme on consumption will be dissipating. Therefore, we forecast that GDP will grow 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017.