Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener:

- Today US Consumer Confidence
- German business sentiment measured by Ifo index slightly up
- MPC’s Kotecki: further rate cuts only in 2026; Litwiniuk open to a cut in November
- Mild zloty strengthening, minor moves in interest rate market

We should start the new week better rested due to the switch from daylight saving time to standard time in Poland this weekend. (...) The domestic economic calendar for the new week includes only one, but important, item: preliminary CPI inflation data for October, due on Friday. We expect CPI to rise to 3.1% y/y from 2.9% y/y in August–September. (...) Abroad, flash 3Q GDP data will be published by selected EU countries (including Spain, France, Italy, Germany, Czechia, Hungary), while in the US the release is likely to be delayed due to the prolonged government shutdown. Several European sentiment indicators will also be released: Ifo, GfK, ESI. However, investor attention will be focused on central bank decisions, particularly the US FOMC on Wednesday. (...)

Today's data proved slightly worse than expected. Retail sales rose by 6.4% y/y in September, slightly slower than our forecast (7.3% y/y). Seasonally adjusted figures showed a decline of 0.6% m/m. The business confidence survey for October showed an improvement in sentiment among a large portion of companies, while the consumer survey was somewhat disappointing after the strong optimism seen in September. The NBP survey of companies also indicated a slight improvement in business conditions in the past quarter. The final element of the morning's data was the agricultural product purchase price index, which recorded a decline in growth to 9.8% y/y in September from 11.8% y/y in August. Despite the weaker-than-expected sales reading, we still believe the outlook for private consumption remains good (...).

Despite the high volatility in high-frequency economic data, the trend of the domestic economy appears to remain moderately positive. Our forecasts suggest that after disappointing August publications, September data will show a clear improvement across most indicators. This will be partly due to calendar effects and an exceptionally weak base – recall that in September 2024, the domestic economy was dealing with the aftermath of floods and a difficult-to-explain collapse in retail sales data. Nevertheless, even after adjusting for these effects, we should see signs of further gradual improvement in economic conditions. GDP growth in 3Q (the preliminary figure will be released in mid-November) is likely to accelerate again to 3.6–3.7% y/y, confirming that the full year may close with growth near 3.5%, possibly with a slight upside risk. (...)

In September's Rates and FX Outlook:
 

• Poland’s GDP growth failed to accelerate in 2Q16, with investments surprising negatively (-4.9% y/y), and we think that the second half of the year will see no significant improvement in economic growth. Although private consumption is likely to gain strength in the coming quarters, supported by solid labour income and the new child subsidies, it may take time until investments recover, and the positive impact of net exports will be hard to maintain (export growth may decelerate and imports accelerate). We expect a more significant investment pick-up next year, but by then the impact of the 500+ child benefit programme on consumption will be dissipating. Therefore, we forecast that GDP will grow 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017.