Economic Analysis

Recent reports and analyses


US inflation drop supported risk appetite

Economic Analysis | Daily

In today's Eyeopener
- Today, US PPI and Michigan index, CPI inflation in France and Spain
- Hennig-Kloska: decision about extending energy shield for 2025 at the end of this year
- The Sejm’s committee meets on 24 July to discuss State Tribunal motion for NBP governor 
- US CPI inflation surprised to the downside
- Zloty slightly stronger, dollar lost after US CPI, equity markets lower, debt stronger


New data plus ECB meeting

Economic Analysis | Weekly

We are approaching the next round of monthly data releases. On Monday, we will get the full data on June CPI inflation and the May balance of payments, on Tuesday core inflation, on Wednesday the July consumer confidence survey results, on Thursday wage and employment data, as well as industrial production and PPI inflation. (...)     Abroad, the market may pay attention to 2Q GDP data in China, retail sales in Germany and the US, industrial production in the euro area and the US, as well as European HICP inflation. However, the week’s main event will be the ECB meeting on Thursday. Analysts and investors unanimously expect a pause after the bank decreased main interest rates by 25 bps in June, marking the first cut in 5 years. The market is pricing in about 3 more rate cuts over the next 12 months.


Silly season

Economic Analysis | Economic comment

In terms of economic news and data releases, the next week will be almost empty. There is a complete lack of significant economic data and events in Poland, and very little abroad: there will be inflation data in Hungary, Czechia, Germany and USA, data on German exports, Michigan consumer confidence survey. In the middle of the week the Fed governor J.Powell will give a semi-annual testimony on monetary policy at the Senate Banking Committee and the House Financial Services committee. Also, the season of quarterly financial reports publications by US companies begins. The week will start once again with the analysis of the results of the elections in France (...)


Poland - the European champion?

Economic Analysis | MACROscope

No, Poland will not become the European champion in football, but in terms of GDP growth in the next two years it should be among the leaders. We certainly have a chance for the first place in 2025 when it comes to the lowest unemployment and the highest inflation. A high fiscal deficit will also place us close to the top of the EU.
Despite the exceptionally high volatility visible in high-frequency data, in our opinion the Polish economy remains on the path of gradual economic recovery. Exactly a year ago we put forward the hypothesis that the economy is at a turning point and GDP growth in the second half of 2023 should start to recover, accelerating to about 3% in 2024. In retrospect, we think that this was actually a good call and a scenario, assuming the leading role of consumption in this year's economic recovery, but also a break in the downward trend in industry, remains valid. (...)


Rates and FX Outlook - September 2016

Economic Analysis | Rates and FX

In September's Rates and FX Outlook:

  • Poland’s GDP growth failed to accelerate in 2Q16, with investments surprising negatively (-4.9% y/y), and we think that the second half of the year will see no significant improvement in economic growth. Although private consumption is likely to gain strength in the coming quarters, supported by solid labour income and the new child subsidies, it may take time until investments recover, and the positive impact of net exports will be hard to maintain (export growth may decelerate and imports accelerate). We expect a more significant investment pick-up next year, but by then the impact of the 500+ child benefit programme on consumption will be dissipating. Therefore, we forecast that GDP will grow 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017.