Economic comment

26March2024

NBP governor’s investigation 101

Economic Analysis | Economic comment

The MPs of the Civic Platform filed in a motion in the parliament to put the NBP governor Adam Glapiński before the Tribunal of State. The first stage of the process will be the investigation by the parliamentary Committee on Constitutional Responsibility, which may take 6-12 months, according to the ruling coalition’s MP Janusz Cichoń. The next step is either a motion of constitutional responsibility for the NBP governor (which has to be approved by Sejm’s absolute majority) or cancelling the case. The former option closes the door for criminal prosecution of the same charges, the latter does not. The NBP governor cannot be dismissed before a final court sentence for a committed criminal offence or a final State Tribunal sentence banning him from holding high government posts (both options may be several years away), unless he steps down earlier - which he has ruled out in the recent FT interview (...)

21March2024

Retail sales rebound gained momentum

Economic Analysis | Economic comment

Retail sales surprised to the upside in February and printed +6.1% y/y vs. market consensus at 4.9% y/y, our forecast at 4.3% y/y and January reading at 3.2% y/y. Seasonally-adjusted numbers showed a spike by 2.9% m/m. Improvement in annual growth rate was recorded in almost all categories of sales, especially in durable goods. This is the second positive surprise in a row. We think March will be even stronger, additionally supported by Easter effect and shopping ahead of the rise of VAT rate on food. (...)

20March2024

February numbers surprise to the upside

Economic Analysis | Economic comment

February brought a solid portion of data from Polish economy showing stronger than expected industrial output and wages. Wage growth accelerated to 12.9% y/y from 12.8% y/y, with real rate up to 9.8% y/y from 8.8% y/y in January, which is the highest print since 90s. Employment declined in February by 0.2% y/y, in line with forecasts. For the upcoming months, we expect a stable employment and double digit wage growth amid expected economic recovery. Consumer confidence indicators improved slightly. This should support our view for accelerating private consumption to 2.8% y/y in 1Q and 3.4% in the entire year. Industrial output rose by 3.3% y/y vs. upwardly revised 2.5% y/y (from 1.6% y/y) in January. PPI increased a bit, but due to a strong revision in January numbers, it was markedly below forecasts. PPI may still contribute to a decline in CPI.