Economic comment

Today’s conference of the NBP Governor did not sound dovish, in our view. Adam Glapiński explained that the decision to keep interest rates on hold in February was justified by the fact that no new information on inflation emerged since the previous meeting, while data on real activity were quite strong – which is fully in line with our argumentation. Interestingly, his comments suggested that there was no unanimity at this week’s MPC meeting, so probably some members proposed to continue with monetary easing (...) For now, we keep our view that two more rate cuts are possible in the nearest months: the first one in March, and the next one in April or May, depending on the data. So, the NBP rate should stabilise at 3.5%.

Poland’s GDP growth accelerated in 2025 to 3.6%, up from 3.0% in 2024. The acceleration was driven by strong domestic demand, including a 3.7% increase in private consumption and a 4.2% rise in investment. Assuming that GDP growth data for the first three quarters of 2025 were not revised, the full‑year figures suggest that GDP growth in 4Q25 stood in the 3.9–4.2% y/y range. Overall, the data confirm that GDP growth momentum is strengthening and should remain close to 4.0% in 2026, supported by the development of a new investment cycle. The new figures reinforce our view that the MPC will refrain from cutting interest rates at least until March.

As expected, retail sales growth accelerated significantly in December, although this was largely due to seasonal effects. Year-on-year, sales accelerated from 3.1% in November to 5.3% in December, and seasonally adjusted sales were strong but slightly lower: November's 5.5% growth was replaced by 4.7%.