MACROscope

It’s official: in 2Q20 Poland has entered its deepest recession since the early 90., with GDP falling almost 9% q/q (s.a.), a bit less than the EU average. That said, the plunge of economic activity in the worst stage of the pandemic-related lockdown proved to be smaller than earlier anticipated, and what is more, the most recent economic data have shown a surprisingly vigorous rebound right afterwards.

It seems that we have finally reached a turning point and after several months of downward forecasts revisions, now it is time for their upgrade. At the same time, some caution is still needed and we think it is too risky to extrapolate the impressive pace of revival from its early stage to the following months. 

After a very deep collapse of economic activity in April, May and June saw signals of rebound from the bottom, as the economic and social restriction were being lifted. Possibly, we are approaching the wave of upward forecasts revisions (especially those more pessimistic). While most of developed countries were able to suppress the numbers of new infections effectively, in many emerging economies the wave is still rising. Worrying sign is the resurgence of infections in regions where restrictions were relaxed after they seemingly coped with pandemic.

We still believe the scenario of economic growth for Poland could be V-shaped: after GDP drop by almost 12% y/y in 2Q20, every next quarter should be better and as a result GDP could drop by c.4% this year and rebound by almost 6% in 2021.