MACROscope

In August, global financial markets went through a short-lived but quite sharp correction, driven by renewed fears of recession in the US, triggered by weaker labour market data. In our assessment, the baseline scenario for the global economy is still a soft landing: a mild and controlled deceleration in the US, a slow recovery from the bottom in the euro area, a structural slowdown in China. (...) Despite the challenging external environment, the Polish economy is reaccelerating in line with the scenario we have been predicting for a long time. In 2Q24 Poland recorded the fastest GDP growth in the entire EU and was the only country in the CEE region to surprise with a positive result, showing great resilience to the protracted downturn in Germany. (...) 

No, Poland will not become the European champion in football, but in terms of GDP growth in the next two years it should be among the leaders. We certainly have a chance for the first place in 2025 when it comes to the lowest unemployment and the highest inflation. A high fiscal deficit will also place us close to the top of the EU.
Despite the exceptionally high volatility visible in high-frequency data, in our opinion the Polish economy remains on the path of gradual economic recovery. Exactly a year ago we put forward the hypothesis that the economy is at a turning point and GDP growth in the second half of 2023 should start to recover, accelerating to about 3% in 2024. In retrospect, we think that this was actually a good call and a scenario, assuming the leading role of consumption in this year's economic recovery, but also a break in the downward trend in industry, remains valid. (...)