MACROscope

Recent positive data from the domestic economy have sparked a wave of optimism about the prospects for economic growth in Poland. For us, this optimism is nothing new. We wrote about the fact that the coming years would be marked by strong investment growth and that 2026 would be better than 2025 in terms of GDP growth before it became trendy. At the same time, it is worth bearing in mind that these will not be easy years, free from uncertainty, and that the acceleration in domestic growth will be moderate rather than spectacular. In our opinion, the increasingly popular slogan ‘GDP at four plus’ will materialise more likely in the form of nominal GDP level exceeding PLN 4 trillion, rather than in the form of average real GDP growth for the entire year above 4% (although this may not be far off) (...)

Despite the high volatility in high-frequency economic data, the trend of the domestic economy appears to remain moderately positive. Our forecasts suggest that after disappointing August publications, September data will show a clear improvement across most indicators. This will be partly due to calendar effects and an exceptionally weak base – recall that in September 2024, the domestic economy was dealing with the aftermath of floods and a difficult-to-explain collapse in retail sales data. Nevertheless, even after adjusting for these effects, we should see signs of further gradual improvement in economic conditions. GDP growth in 3Q (the preliminary figure will be released in mid-November) is likely to accelerate again to 3.6–3.7% y/y, confirming that the full year may close with growth near 3.5%, possibly with a slight upside risk. (...)