MACROscope

Just after we have released our MACROscope report, two important events took place, which – in our view – deserve a quick update of our predicted market scenario. First of all, the Monetary Policy Council decided to raise the main reference rate by 40bp, from 0.1% to 0.5%. Glapiński flagged that it was the MPC’s intention to surprise markets with a strong move, to create some potential waiting room before next hikes. But he also said the MPC deliberately neither signalled likely continuation of rate hikes nor ruled it out in the post-meeting statement, as the next decisions will be data-driven. Second, The Polish Constitutional Tribunal ruled that part of EU law is incompatible with the Polish Constitution, which has immediately triggered the European Commission’s warning.

Global economic recovery has clearly lost momentum recently amid new coronavirus strains, supply chains disruptions, soaring energy costs. We still think the outlook for the global economy is positive, although 3Q21 apparently saw some weakness, which potentially may extend into 4Q, especially in the case of energy crisis escalation. However, we see it rather as a short-term disruption than a change in generally positive trend. Our baseline scenario for the world economy is still that of solid growth.