MACROscope

The global economy is slowing down. Germany and the euro zone are moving rapidly towards recession. Economic activity in Poland is also on a downward trajectory and the bottom of this mini-cycle is probably still ahead of us, to be seen early next year. Its depth will be determined by the magnitude of the energy market disruptions during the heating season. Precise forecasting of GDP growth is very difficult at the moment, firstly because of the great uncertainty about the situation on the energy market (winter weather is just as difficult to predict as Russia's next moves), and secondly because of the revision by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) of GDP data for the last twelve years, which has not yet been followed by the publication of quarterly data. GDP growth in 2021 proved to be 6.8% rather than 5.9% shown previously, and we think that also 1Q-2Q data for 2022 may have been affected. (...)

Since the publication of our previous report in mid-July, a number of news have emerged that make us increasingly cautious about the economic outlook. GDP data for the second quarter surprised with a strong decline of 2.1% q/q and, although this was mainly the result of inventory correction, the outlook for consumption and investment is looking less and less rosy. The biggest risk is the situation on the energy markets in Europe, which face a real threat of a gas shortage during the winter season due to a reduction in supplies from Russia. There is growing evidence that sharp increase in market prices for gas and electricity is already urging some companies to reduce their operations. If supplies had to be rationed in the winter, the scale of the problem would be incomparably greater. (...)