MACROscope

Despite the high volatility in high-frequency economic data, the trend of the domestic economy appears to remain moderately positive. Our forecasts suggest that after disappointing August publications, September data will show a clear improvement across most indicators. This will be partly due to calendar effects and an exceptionally weak base – recall that in September 2024, the domestic economy was dealing with the aftermath of floods and a difficult-to-explain collapse in retail sales data. Nevertheless, even after adjusting for these effects, we should see signs of further gradual improvement in economic conditions. GDP growth in 3Q (the preliminary figure will be released in mid-November) is likely to accelerate again to 3.6–3.7% y/y, confirming that the full year may close with growth near 3.5%, possibly with a slight upside risk. (...)

Since the publication of our previous report before the summer holidays, the macroeconomic scenario has not changed much. The Polish economy remains on a path of moderate recovery, which should result in GDP growth of 3.5% this year and 3.7% next year. However, the composition of this growth will be slightly different than we had assumed. Due to the protracted delay in spending funds from the RRF, the investment impulse is shifting more and more towards 2026. Nevertheless, we are already seeing early signs of this cycle, in the form of growing investment expenditure by local governments and large companies. This year's slightly weaker-than-expected investment will be offset by stronger household consumption, which, in addition to solid real income growth, is being driven by a credit revival and a normalisation of the savings rate from the exceptionally high level reached last year. (...)