MACROscope

In the last month we have learned more about the prospects for the Polish economy from trends abroad than from domestic data. The US and Eurozone economies are weathering the slowdown surprisingly well – to the degree that instead of considering whether there is a hard or soft landing globally, one can ask if the global economy is preparing for landing at all. In China, there are the first signs of a rebound after the removal of Covid restrictions. From this perspective, the external environment for Polish economic growth seems increasingly favourable. Local issues, however, dictate that we are reluctant to revise our GDP forecasts higher (...)

The first GDP estimate for 2022 at 4.9% proved better than expected, indicating that the deceleration of the economy continues to be slower than we had anticipated (4Q GDP growth was probably slightly above 2% y/y). At the same time, the exceptionally mild weather is reducing the risk of energy crunch in Europe. Yet, it is not the case that the news is exclusively positive - the latest consumer spending data not only in Poland, but also in other European countries, look worrying, and a strong slump also affected the world trade turnover at the end of last year. However, on balance, we think there are more reasons for slightly greater optimism - as a result, we are moving our GDP forecast for this year slightly up, from 0.1% to 0.7%. The impending global recovery is indicated, among other things, by a growing number of leading indicators, which have begun to rebound noticeably.  (...)