MACROscope

The Polish economy has returned to a path of over 3% economic growth, which we believe is likely to continue in the coming quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast for this year close to 3.5%, and for next year we even foresee a slight acceleration to 3.7%. This is a more optimistic scenario than the consensus, motivated, among other things, by our moderately constructive view of the outlook for the eurozone economy and our conviction that the domestic investment cycle is only just taking off and is slightly lagging earlier expectations, so that its greatest momentum will come in 2026. (...)

The reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US on most countries remain suspended until early July, and it has just been agreed between the US and China that higher tariff rates are to be suspended until August. This creates a window of time in which business should still go quite well, even though companies will likely still worry about their prospects. It may even be possible to count on an increase in orders and a build-up of inventories ahead of the possible entry into force of significantly higher tariffs (...) The MPC's May decision to cut rates by 50bp was described as an adjustment of the rate level rather than a start of regular monetary easing. The Council is still divided as to whether the resumption of rate cuts should take place in July or September, i.e. whether a favourable projection is enough for this or whether it is first necessary to see inflation’s decline below 3.5% y/y in actual data. In our view, rates will go down twice more this year (...)