MACROscope

Since the publication of our previous report before the summer holidays, the macroeconomic scenario has not changed much. The Polish economy remains on a path of moderate recovery, which should result in GDP growth of 3.5% this year and 3.7% next year. However, the composition of this growth will be slightly different than we had assumed. Due to the protracted delay in spending funds from the RRF, the investment impulse is shifting more and more towards 2026. Nevertheless, we are already seeing early signs of this cycle, in the form of growing investment expenditure by local governments and large companies. This year's slightly weaker-than-expected investment will be offset by stronger household consumption, which, in addition to solid real income growth, is being driven by a credit revival and a normalisation of the savings rate from the exceptionally high level reached last year. (...)

The Polish economy has returned to a path of over 3% economic growth, which we believe is likely to continue in the coming quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast for this year close to 3.5%, and for next year we even foresee a slight acceleration to 3.7%. This is a more optimistic scenario than the consensus, motivated, among other things, by our moderately constructive view of the outlook for the eurozone economy and our conviction that the domestic investment cycle is only just taking off and is slightly lagging earlier expectations, so that its greatest momentum will come in 2026. (...)