Daily

In today's Eyeopener
  
- Today unemployment rate in March and GUS Statistical Bulletin
- Annual growth rate of retail sales remained above 6% y/y
- PMI for German and euro zone manufacturing disappointed
- Zloty slightly stronger, some decline in yields after weaker US PMI, weak auction results

In today' Eyeopener

- Today retail sales and money supply in March, PMI in Germany and euro zone, MNB decision
- Strong declines in industrial and construction output, wage growth still robust
- MF estimates the general government deficit at PLN189bn in 2024, we see upward risk
- FX market stable, further declines in yields

In today's Eyeopener
  
- Today data on output and its prices, labour market
- Calendar effect likely to undermine the output growth in March
- Finance Ministry is negotiating lenient recommendations for the EDP
- Zloty trimming losses, yields higher

After positive surprises in January data, the end of Q1 brought a big disappointment in activity data. Industrial production slowed to -6.0% y/y from 2.2% y/y, and construction slowed to -13.3% y/y from -4.9% y/y (down 4-5% m/m after deseasonalization).  Perhaps better results will come a little later with the recovery in the eurozone and the finalization of new housing construction starts and EU-funded projects. Payrolls in the corporate sector slowed to 12% y/y from 12.9%, while real growth remained at 9.8% y/y and annualized employment growth remained at -0.2% y/y. The labor market remains tight, and companies are targeting productivity growth by, among other things, restructuring employment. The decline in producer prices slowed to -9.6% y/y from 10% in February, and we expect further acceleration in the coming months. 

In today's Eyeopener:
 
- Today, German PPI inflation, already released
- Polish GDP data revision showed higher investment growth in 2023, lower in 2022
- Polish consumers’ assessment of current situation still improving
- Stable FX market yesterday, slightly stronger dollar, lower domestic yields and higher US yields