10July2025
Slight improvement of business sentiment
Economic Analysis
DailyIn today's Eyeopener:
- Today, German inflation, US new jobless claims
- Households’ saving rate increased to 9.3% in 1Q
- MIK business climate indicator reported slight improvement of sentiment in July
- Zloty stable, local bond yields slightly lower
9July2025
Fiscal deficit close to 7% of GDP
Economic Analysis
DailyIn today's Eyeopener:
- Today, FOMC minutes from the last meeting
- Fiscal deficit increased to 6.9% of GDP after 1Q25
- In January, number of foreigners working in Poland rose 4.5% y/y
- EURUSD still close to 1.17, local rates moving up
8July2025
Tariffs spoil the sentiment
Economic Analysis
DailyIn today's Eyeopener:
- Today, Hungarian inflation and German foreign trade
- MPC’s Iwona Duda sees room for one more 25bp rate cut this year
- RRF expenditure in May higher than last year, but much lower than in April
- Dollar strengthening caused depreciation of CEE currencies, local market rates higher
7July2025
NBP projection helped in interest rate cut decision
Economic Analysis
DailyIn today's Eyeopener:
- Today, retail sales in euro zone, industrial output in Germany and Czechia
- Next MPC members mentioning possible further rate cuts this year
- Unexpected, atypical rise in unemployment in June, acceleration in services production in May
- Calm financial markets amid US holiday, local rates keep falling
4July2025
MPC may cut rates further if data allow
Economic Analysis
DailyIn today's Eyeopener:
- Today Czech inflation, US holiday
- NBP Governor: further rate cuts are possible, MPC’s Ludwik Kotecki sees two more this year
- Strong US labour market data, Eurozone services PMI higher than the preliminary print
- EURPLN declined to the levels from before the rate cut, more monetary policy easing priced in