2March2026
Conflict in the Middle East lifts uncertainty
Economic Analysis Daily
In today's Eyeopener:
- Today, manufacturing PMIs and Poland’s 4Q GDP data
- Government presented information on the allocation of funds from the SAFE programme
- Muted first market reaction to the conflict in the Middle East
27February2026
Economic Sentiment Indicators lower, but still solid
Economic Analysis Daily
In today's Eyeopener:
- Today, preliminary estimates of German and French inflation for February
- ESIs for Poland and the euro area moved lower in February, but remain at solid levels
- Markets unsettled by US–Iran negotiations; the zloty and domestic 2Y bonds under pressure26February2026
A modest decline in Poland’s HICP inflation in January
Economic Analysis Daily
In today's Eyeopener:
- Today, the Economic Sentiment Indicators for EU countries
- Dąbrowski of the MPC: 3.5% is a good target level for the NBP rate
- Poland’s HICP inflation fell in January to 2.5% y/y; in the euro area it declined to 1.7% y/y
- A temporary weakening of the zloty; 10‑year domestic bonds slightly stronger25February2026
Budget deficit in 2025 below plan
Economic Analysis Daily
In today's Eyeopener:
- Today, January HICP inflation data
- LFS data: employment up 0.6% y/y in 4Q last year
- NBP Governor: under the new projection, inflation will remain close to target for two years
- According to preliminary estimates, the 2025 budget deficit was PLN13bn below plan
- Zloty stronger, slight strengthening of longer-dated bonds24February2026
Retail sales growth remains solid
Economic Analysis Daily
In today's Eyeopener:
- Today, the Statistical Bulletin, including LFS data for 4Q25
- Retail sales surprised to the upside, rising by 4.4% y/y in January
- The European Parliament has suspended the ratification of the trade agreement with the US
- Zloty stronger; only a limited market reaction to the annulment of the IEEPA tariffs introduced by D. Trump