Daily

  • 9July2025

    Fiscal deficit close to 7% of GDP

    Economic Analysis Daily

    In today's Eyeopener:

    • Today, FOMC minutes from the last meeting
    • Fiscal deficit increased to 6.9% of GDP after 1Q25
    • In January, number of foreigners working in Poland rose 4.5% y/y
    • EURUSD still close to 1.17, local rates moving up
  • 8July2025

    Tariffs spoil the sentiment

    Economic Analysis Daily

    In today's Eyeopener:

    • Today, Hungarian inflation and German foreign trade
    • MPC’s Iwona Duda sees room for one more 25bp rate cut this year
    • RRF expenditure in May higher than last year, but much lower than in April
    • Dollar strengthening caused depreciation of CEE currencies, local market rates higher
  • 7July2025

    NBP projection helped in interest rate cut decision

    Economic Analysis Daily

    In today's Eyeopener:

    • Today, retail sales in euro zone, industrial output in Germany and Czechia
    • Next MPC members mentioning possible further rate cuts this year
    • Unexpected, atypical rise in unemployment in June, acceleration in services production in May
    • Calm financial markets amid US holiday, local rates keep falling
  • 4July2025

    MPC may cut rates further if data allow

    Economic Analysis Daily

    In today's Eyeopener:

    - Today Czech inflation, US holiday
    - NBP Governor: further rate cuts are possible, MPC’s Ludwik Kotecki sees two more this year
    - Strong US labour market data, Eurozone services PMI higher than the preliminary print
    - EURPLN declined to the levels from before the rate cut, more monetary policy easing priced in

  • 3July2025

    Unexpected interest rate cut

    Economic Analysis Daily

    In today's Eyeopener:

    - Today press conference of the NBP Governor, services PMIs, US labour market report
    - Polish MPC unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25bp
    - The MPC decision weakened the złoty and strengthened domestic bonds